International energy outlook 20 ieo20, published in july 20. Throughout the first half of 2014, import petroleum prices rose 10. Opec s contribution to the average world barrel of oil under pure monopoly conditions is unknown, but its share of world oil production was about 40% over the past five years, so we consider opec s exercise of market power with longrun elasticities and a market share of 40%. It has also pleaded for taxes at the source of oil production rather than at the point of consumption barnett and dessai, 2002, depledge, 2008, in recognition of the fact that the oilconsuming countries. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over the next five years 3 new projects despite the current global crude glut, numerous new projects are expected to come online in non opec countries over the next few years. The 6month advance returned import prices to levels last seen at the beginning of 2012. Isbn 9783950272284 2014 world oil outlook organization of the petroleum exporting countries world oil outlook 2014 organization of the petroleum exporting countries. The organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec. Opecs contribution to the average world barrel of oil under pure monopoly conditions is unknown, but its share of world oil production was about 40% over the past five years, so we consider opecs exercise.
During 20142016 global oil supply outpaced world oil demand growth, leading to. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. By then, the cheap oil sources will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. Since 1965, the headquarters of opec has been in vienna, austria. Since its inception in 1983, the ieas oil market report omr has become recognised as one of the worlds most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for. World oil outlook, opec secretariat background paper. Oct 01, 20 opec s secretary general said he was comfortable with the market outlook for 2014 and a forecast drop in demand for opec oil was not large, indicating the group may not make big changes to output. By then, the cheap sources of oil will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to. The 2019 opec world oil outlook woo was launched today at the.
Opec members hold 82% of the worlds proven oil reserves. After depletion of excess inventories, opec abandoned. In 2015, non opec oil supply is projected mbd, down to. By accessing this site, you accept that we process. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. Opecs world oil outlook and pivot to asia seeking alpha. The opec world oil outlook woo has been published annually since 2007. Non opec supply expectations indicate changes in market sentiment concerning oil supply. Opec and the outlook for the oil price financial times. Non opec oil supply in 2014 growth has been revised slightly to up mbd. We develop and estimate a structural econometric model of the dynamic game among petroleumproducing firms making production and investment decisions in the world oil market. The world oil outlook combines the expertise of the opec secretariat, professionals in opec member countries and the organizations economic commission board, as well as input from various other sources. Opec organization of petroleum exporting countries has been partly blamed for instigating such price instabilities. The fts anjli raval reports on how the outlook for oil is being shaped by a tug of war between opec plus a group of producers who recently agreed to.
Opec, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries is an international organization. Eia reference scenario shows world tight oil production increasing to almost 8 million bd in 2025. In 2018, it exported 25 million barrels of crude oil a day. Forum ief ministerial meeting in may 2014 has been the oil price collapse. Opec was formed in 1960 when the international oil market was largely dominated by multinational companies known as the seven sisters. Oil plunges in worst reaction to opec since 2014 on demand. Economic models of opec behaviour and the role of saudi. Eia, annual energy outlook 2014 and international energy outlook 2014.
In the 1960s opec made sure that oil companies could not unilaterally cut prices. Demand for opec oil remains relatively flat over the next decade, hovering in the range of 33. Global product demand, shares and growth, 20142040. Opecs decisions have a significant impact on future oil prices. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over the.
It has also pleaded for taxes at the source of oil production rather than at the point of consumption barnett and dessai, 2002, depledge, 2008, in recognition of the fact that the oil consuming countries make more money from the sale of oil products than oil producing countries earn from the export of crude opec, 2014a. Uncertainties in the shortterm global petroleum and other liquids supply forecast, feb2014, pdf. Opec cipec world demand for crude very inelastic world demand for copper elastic when first formed held 23 of world oil reserves held of worlds noncommunist copper production initially opec. To that end, many opec countries expressed their dedication to stability in global oil supplies. By accessing this site, you accept that we process certain information you send e. Opec secretary general comfortable with 2014 oil outlook.
Economic models of opec behaviour and the role of saudi arabia nourah al yousef department of economics, university of surrey june 1998 1 introduction with the rise of the oil prices in 1973, numerous theoretical and empirical studies were undertaken to analyse the structure of the world oil market and the role of opec. The interplay bertween opec, us shale and supply interruptions. Nov 12, 2014 the oil cartel released its world oil outlook last week, showing opec crude production falling to 29. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040. On the whole growing tendency of world oil supply is observed in spite of the oil price collapse in 2014. However, this years oil supply prospects became less optimistic.
Global economic prospects july 2014 commodity markets outlook 2 on the upside, a key risk is an oil supply disruption in the gulf and less so central asia. London reuters opec s secretary general said he was comfortable with the market outlook for 2014 and a forecast drop in demand for opec oil was not large, indicating the group. In november 2014, opec announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. World oil outlook 20 woo20, published in november 20. Recently, and since the latter part of 2014, in the fear that the shale resource developments may affect the market share of the opec producers, oil prices have dropped significantly because of opec countries, while suffering. World oil demand outlook in the reference case mediumterm oil demand rises 1 mbd p. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over the next five years 3 new projects despite the current global crude glut, numerous new projects are expected to come online in nonopec countries. As of september 2018, the member countries accounted for an estimated 44. This rapid expansion was initially underestimated, as reflected in repeated upward revisions to the outlook for u. Nevertheless, opec remains relatively confident about the longterm. The oil price continued to rise in 1h 2018 yet a q4 2018 renewed supply. Nonopec supply expectations indicate changes in market sentiment concerning oil supply. It presents projections for the mediumterm to 2019 and. Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is forecast to grow at an average.
Opec s world oil outlook woo is part of the organizations commitment to market stability. Nov 05, 2019 as a result, opec has lowered its outlook numbers for global oil demand growth, to 104. Data from opec mazraati, 2010 stated that the aviation sector in 2006 was the second major consumer of total oil demand in the transportation sector 11. Starting in january of each year, each line shows the expected. In 2020, eia forecasts global oil consumptionweighted gross. But growth in nonopec production is set to lose momentum after a few years. Opec cipec world demand for crude very inelastic world demand for copper elastic when first formed held 23 of world oil reserves held of worlds noncommunist copper production initially opec quadrupled world oil price unable to raise copper prices faces relatively inelastic fringe supply demand for copper elastic recyclable and. Our oil price forecasts are constructed from a structural var world oil market model in the tradition of kilian and murphy 2014 4, which has been extended by economou et al. According to opecs 396page world oil outlook report pdf, plugin vehicles will represent whats essentially a fraction of a fraction of newcar purchases. Economic models of opec behaviour and the role of saudi arabia nourah al yousef department of economics, university of surrey june 1998 1 introduction with the rise of the oil prices in 1973. As pointed out in the opec world oil outlook 2014, longterm trends for 2040 show a very positive picture for oil, with fossil fuels remaining the dominant energy form at 80 per cent, split between coal, gas and oil, with demand continuing to rise. Policy research notes represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent wbg views or policy. The publication is a means to highlight and further the.
Opec signals greater oil glut in 2016 as its output surges. The balancing act a look at oil market fundamentals over. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future. Oil market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze highercost producers including us shale oil out of the market. Opec simple english wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Opec monthly oil market report july 2014 3 the oil market outlook in 2015 despite some weakness in the first half of the year, the world economy continues to recover. By 2019, oil demand is 96 mbd aggregate oecd demand peaked in 2005 developing countries key to growth. Opec is committed to safeguarding the privacy of its website users. Our oil price forecasts are constructed from a structural var world oil market model in the tradition of kilian and murphy 20144, which has been extended by economou et al. May, 2016 opec left its forecast that world oil demand will rise by 1.
Starting in january of each year, each line shows the expected forecast of non opec supply for the specified calendar year, which tends to move toward the actual realized supply outcome as the year progresses. The formation of opec was a turning point in state control over natural resources. Since its inception in 1983, the ieas oil market report omr has become recognised as one of the worlds most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market. Recently, and since the latter part of 2014, in the fear that the shale resource.
Global economic prospects october 2014 commodity markets outlook 1 overview commodity prices are expected to remain weak for the remainder of 2014 and, perhaps through much of 2015. Opecs world oil outlook woo is part of the organizations commitment to market stability. Dec 26, 2015 the opec 2015 world oil outlook came out a few days ago. Opecs world oil outlook 2017 center for strategic and. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors. This privacy policy applies to personal information processed by opec.
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